原油成品油早报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spreads also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. The end of Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4th ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week, US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs dropped rapidly as of July 4th, and the US fundamentals remained tight. Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. Crude oil monthly spreads are expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, and absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Analysts believe that oil prices face multiple bearish factors such as tariffs, inventory, and production increases. OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said that bearish drivers for oil prices include uncertainties around US tariffs and potential production increases from OPEC+. Despite strong travel demand during the July 4th holiday weekend in the US, API data showed an increase of about 7.1 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, although refined product inventories decreased. Dutch bank ING analysts said that the overnight API data was bearish for oil prices but that changes in refined products were more constructive [3]. - DBS Bank expects that OPEC's actual supply will not increase significantly. DBS Bank's energy department team leader Suvro Sarkar said that oil prices have shown remarkable resilience in the face of the accelerating increase in OPEC+ supply, attributing this support to seasonal demand peaks and the expectation that some OPEC+ members will make up for earlier over - production, so actual supply is not expected to increase significantly [3]. - Kazakhstan plans to maintain the current oil production level until the end of this year [3]. - Kuwait's oil giant believes that OPEC+'s production increase signals a tightening market. Kuwait Petroleum Group CEO Sabah said that OPEC+'s recent large - scale production increase and communication with customers indicate that the growth momentum of global crude oil demand will continue after the summer driving season. He also mentioned that the company maintained close communication with Gulf partners during the escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran last month to ensure stable oil supply [3]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 4th, US crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels (a 1.69% increase), the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease from the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 906,000 barrels per day to 6.013 million barrels per day [4]. - The EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending July 4th was - 2.658 million barrels (expected - 1.486 million barrels, previous value 4.188 million barrels), and the EIA refined oil inventory was - 825,000 barrels (expected - 314,000 barrels, previous value - 1.71 million barrels) [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with production from major refineries rising and that from independent refineries falling. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. 3.3 Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices and monthly spreads oscillated within a narrow range. WTI spot was tight. Trump's policy change on July 4th was favorable for traditional energy. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in August, and Trump had some diplomatic and negotiation plans. The US imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories were flat, US commercial crude oil inventories accumulated, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, diesel inventories decreased, and the number of US oil rigs decreased rapidly. Global refinery profits rebounded, and it was the peak season for refinery operations. Crude oil monthly spreads are expected to remain in high - level oscillations, with the WTI and Brent markets stronger than the Dubai market, and absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's production increase and Trump's policies [3][4].