永安期货内外套日报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Different industries have distinct market conditions and investment logics, with various factors such as import - profit, tariffs, supply - demand, and seasonal factors influencing their performance [1][2][3][6] - Attention should be paid to policy changes, supply - demand rhythm differences, and price differentials in different industries for potential investment opportunities Summary by Category Import Profit/Price Differential - On July 9, 2025, M - grade US cotton with 141% tariff had an import profit of - 19150, Brazilian soybean crush margin in March was - 4, and palm oil import profit in September was - 398 [1] - Energy products like high - sulfur had an internal - external price differential of - 10, low - sulfur had 17, SC - WTI had 4, and SC - DUBAI had 1 - For non - ferrous metals, nickel spot import profit was - 2437, zinc three - month import profit was - 1295, and copper spot import profit was - 537 - Precious metals had a gold internal - external price differential of 661 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence for non - ferrous metals internal - external arbitrage - Focus on fourth - quarter internal - external reverse arbitrage for aluminum [1] Iron Ore - Proximal shipments have declined from high levels, arrivals have recovered slowly, iron - water production has decreased from high levels, and the ore price center has dropped - There are few internal - external price differential opportunities in the short term, with the core being to capture the discount of continuous iron futures - The global balance sheet is relatively surplus compared to China's [2] Oil Products - SC: Warehouse receipts increased, internal - external prices weakened, and the August OSP remained stable - FU: Maintained a weak internal - external pattern in summer, and internal - external prices weakened rapidly due to a large increase in Zhoushan delivery goods - LU: Internal - external prices oscillated at high levels, waiting for an increase in domestic production - PG: The July CP official price was unexpectedly low, the external price dropped, and the internal - external price differential strengthened significantly. With the expected increase in PDH operation, propane is strong; civil gas prices are suppressed, and a positive - arbitrage approach is recommended [3] Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling, and the strength relationship between US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton has reversed with tariff policy changes. Follow - up tariff policies should be continuously monitored - Oilseeds and oils: These products have a high import dependence, and attention should be paid to the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [6] Precious Metals - RMB exchange - rate fluctuations support the internal - market price, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly - The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [7] PX - Domestic PX operation has rebounded to a high level, and there are still some overseas maintenance. With the subsequent restart of TA, PX is in a de - stocking state, and the valuation has been somewhat restored. Currently, it is advisable to wait and see [8]