瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat desensitized after previous fluctuations in trade relations. With the release of listed companies' semi - annual performance forecasts, the market is optimistic about their H1 earnings. A series of pro - growth policies are taking effect, and the market has strong expectations for positive Q2 economic data. The fundamental recovery supports the stock market, and with the approaching July Politburo meeting, market bulls may pre - position, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - Contract Prices: IF main contract (2509) at 3972.0, up 15.0; IH main contract (2509) at 2740.4, up 13.4; IC main contract (2509) at 5854.2, up 24.2; IM main contract (2509) at 6231.6, up 11.8. IF sub - main contract (2507) at 3997.2, up 15.4; IH sub - main contract (2507) at 2745.4, up 14.0; IC sub - main contract (2507) at 5958.8, up 21.6; IM sub - main contract (2507) at 6375.2, up 10.2 [2]. - Contract Spreads: IF - IH current - month contract spread at 1251.8, up 4.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread at 1961.6, up 8.6; IM - IC current - month contract spread at 416.4, down 12.4; IC - IH current - month contract spread at 3213.4, up 13.2; IM - IF current - month contract spread at 2378.0, down 3.8; IM - IH current - month contract spread at 3629.8, up 0.8 [2]. - Quarter - to - Month Spreads: IF current - quarter to current - month at - 25.2, down 1.0; IF next - quarter to current - month at - 55.6, up 1.4; IH current - quarter to current - month at - 5.0, up 0.8; IH next - quarter to current - month at - 4, up 0.6; IC current - quarter to current - month at - 104.6, up 2.0; IC next - quarter to current - month at - 227.6, up 2.4; IM current - quarter to current - month at - 143.6, up 1.2; IM next - quarter to current - month at - 328.8, up 2.4 [2]. Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions at - 29,557.00, down 216.0; IH top 20 net positions at - 14,304.00, up 275.0; IC top 20 net positions at - 10,512.00, down 601.0; IM top 20 net positions at - 36,476.00, up 278.0 [2]. Spot Prices - CSI 300 at 4010.02, up 18.6; SSE 50 at 2756.93, up 17.0; CSI 500 at 5983.05, up 29.6; CSI 1000 at 6406.57, up 16.1. IF main contract basis at - 38.0, up 0.6; IH main contract basis at - 16.5, down 0.6; IC main contract basis at - 128.9, up 1.2; IM main contract basis at - 175.0, up 1.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume at 15,150.68 billion yuan, down 123.53 billion yuan; margin trading balance at 18,687.97 billion yuan, up 38.65 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume at 1818.91 billion yuan, up 142.25 billion yuan; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation) at - 572.0 billion yuan, up 900.0 billion yuan; main funds at - 449.96 billion yuan (yesterday) and - 192.38 billion yuan (today) [2]. - Rising stock ratio at 54.37%, up 20.10%; Shibor at 1.316%, up 0.003%; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2507) at 29.00, up 5.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility at 11.69%, down 0.23%; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2507) at 29.60, down 12.40; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility at 11.69%, down 0.23%; CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility at 9.25%, up 0.05%; trading volume PCR at 51.64%, down 1.13%; open interest PCR at 73.00%, up 1.18% [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 6.00, up 2.00; technical aspect at 5.40, up 2.00; capital aspect at 6.50, up 1.90 [2]. Industry News - Trump announced on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and he plans to impose tariffs on specific industries like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals. He also mentioned a 10% tariff on each BRICS member country [2]. - US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the US delegation will meet with Chinese officials next month to discuss trade issues, with members including the Treasury Secretary and the US Trade Representative [2]. - China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year (previous value down 0.1%), down 0.1% month - on - month (previous value down 0.2%); PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year (previous value down 3.3%), down 0.4% month - on - month (previous value down 0.4%) [2]. Key Events to Watch - St. Louis Fed President Sam Lem to speak on July 10 at 21:00; Fed Governor Waller to speak on July 11 at 1:15; China's June financial data release time is pending [3]