瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as the good weather in US soybean - producing areas, high oil - mill开机率 due to concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, increasing demand in the aquaculture season, the substitution advantage of soybean meal, and the market's wait for Sino - US trade negotiation news [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is under pressure from the off - season of oil consumption, abundant domestic vegetable oil supply, and high inventory in oil mills. However, the decrease in oil - mill开机率 and the potential impact of fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations on future rapeseed exports to China should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9468 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2611 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; ICE rapeseed is 681.6 Canadian dollars/ton, down 23 Canadian dollars; and rapeseed is 5069 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 56 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 295 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 17084 lots, up 1352 lots; those of rapeseed meal are - 11937 lots, down 109 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3021, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 15030, down 633 [2]. 现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2510 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9720 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 4891.19 yuan/ton, down 150.27 yuan [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 170 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is - 101 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1540 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 290 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 20 million tons, up 5 million tons. The weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 12.53%, up 1.07 percentage points [2]. Industrial Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 10.01 million tons, down 1.14 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 million tons, down 0.64 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 59.95 million tons, down 1.64 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 35.58 million tons, down 1.32 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 29.3 million tons, down 0.8 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.11 million tons, down 0.89 million tons; that of rapeseed meal is 2.32 million tons, down 1.16 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal is 16.22%, down 0.78 percentage points; the historical volatility of 20 - day rapeseed meal is 13.78%, down 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed oil is 12.89%, down 0.48 percentage points; the historical volatility of 20 - day rapeseed oil is 14.7%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures fell more than 3% on July 9th due to technical selling and weak performance of other vegetable oils, with the most actively traded November contract down 23.01 Canadian dollars to 681.09 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The USDA reported that as of July 6th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year [2]. Key Concerns - Pay attention to the results of the US EPA hearing, the rapeseed开机率 and inventory data from Myagric, and the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].