瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250710

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures main contract declined slightly, with a decrease of 0.43% at the close. The open interest decreased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the raw material side, overseas mines held firm on lithium ore prices, which were driven up by spot prices, and smelters' willingness to purchase lithium ore also increased. On the supply side, domestic lithium salt plants significantly increased production. On the demand side, downstream purchases were mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and the willingness to stock up was not significantly strengthened due to the off - season. In the consumer market, industrial expectations were repaired by macro - policies, but effective demand still needed real consumption to drive [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest was 37.04%, up 1.2231% month - on - month. The options market was dominated by call open interest, with a bullish sentiment, and the implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD had both lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars were expanding. The operation suggestion was to lightly short at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price was 64,180 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 91,137 lots, up 2,170 lots; the main contract open interest was 323,683 lots, down 3,212 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was 360 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 13,281 lots, up 626 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 530 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 696 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite was 5,400 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 1,736 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume was 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh [2]. 3.5下游及应用情况 - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 55%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,270,000 units, up 19,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,307,000 units, up 81,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 212,000 units, up 12,000 units [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The total call open interest was 128,032 contracts, up 1,815 contracts; the total put open interest was 47,419 contracts, up 2,216 contracts; the total put - call ratio of open interest was 37.04%, up 1.2231 percentage points; the at - the - money implied volatility was 0.23%, down 0.0057 percentage points [2]. 3.7行业消息 - In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI continued to rise. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. From 2021 to 2024, China's economy maintained an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. In 2024, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 31.4 million. The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted from "one - way adaptation" to "two - way empowerment" [2].