瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of industrial silicon will remain loose as the spot price has risen significantly, electricity prices in the southwest region have decreased, large factories have plans to start operations, and the government in the Yili region of Xinjiang, Northwest China, will continue to subsidize production enterprises. [2] - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend. The organic silicon market has a flat spot - price with recovering production profits, but is expected to see an increase in costs and a decline in production next week, negatively impacting the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon sector has mainstream enterprises reducing production and the downstream photovoltaic industry having an anti - involution situation, leading to a significant decline in demand. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing and prices remaining flat, being in a passive de - stocking phase and having little ability to drive the demand for industrial silicon. [2] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,470 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the main contract position is 381,237 hands, down 17,792 hands; the net position of the top 20 is - 93,605 hands, down 8,706 hands; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,792 hands, down 285 hands; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is 5 yuan, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 280 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 68.24%, up 1.07 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - There are many unconfirmed rumors in the market, waiting for official announcements. Trump said that tariffs will start to be levied on August 1st, with a 50% tariff on imported copper. In the industrial silicon sector, the spot price has risen significantly, electricity prices in the southwest region have decreased, large factories have plans to start operations, and in July, electricity prices in the southwest will further decline. [2]