苹果产业日报-20250710

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In summer, the large - scale listing of summer fruits impacts apple demand, slowing down the sales speed. The spot price is weakly adjusted, dragging down the futures price. However, the current inventory is at a five - year low, strongly supporting the price, so the market is expected to show a fluctuating trend [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 7,783 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the October contract is 7,783 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2,730 hands, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 94,121. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9,016 hands, an increase of 1,313 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia apples (paper - bagged, above 80 second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged; the spot price of Gansu Jingning apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; the spot price of Shandong Yiyuan apples (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.4 yuan/jin, unchanged; the spot price of Shaanxi Luochuan apples (paper - bagged, above 70 semi - commercial goods) is 4 yuan/jin, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area decreased by 19.58 thousand hectares. The national apple output is 5,128.51 tons, an increase of 168.34 tons [2] Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.76 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.54 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 99.31 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 0.03, down 0.01; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.06, down 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 5,152.5 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 2,201,050.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.8 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.84 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.73 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.33 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.93 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan. The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 7.8, unchanged; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 11.8, unchanged; at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 20, an increase of 1.2 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples decreased by 0.24%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options decreased by 0.25% to 16.81% [2] Industry News - On July 10, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the production areas remained sluggish. There was little packaging in cold storage, and buyers mostly bargained. The market was cold, mainly with merchants self - picking and shipping. The actual transaction price remained stable with a weakening trend. The listing volume of early - maturing fruits in the western production areas is small, mainly including bare - skinned Qinyang and green apples, with prices determined by quality, and the trading atmosphere is okay [2] Yield Forecast - According to Mysteel's statistics and bagging volume survey data, the national apple output is preliminarily estimated to be 3,736.64 tons in the new season, an increase of 85.93 tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 season [2] Inventory Situation - As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 91.49 tons, a decrease of 7.81 tons from the previous week. The sales speed changed little compared with the previous week and was still slower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 13.21%, a decrease of 0.77% from the previous week, and the inventory - clearing speed was slower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 5.72%, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous week, and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week [2]