瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250710

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the corn market, international corn prices still hold an advantage due to a good production outlook in the US, but the domestic corn market is weak. The third auction of imported corn saw a cooling in transactions, leading to more market - available grains, price - cutting by enterprises, and a decline in feed demand due to wheat substitution. Corn futures prices have been oscillating downward from high levels [2]. - For the corn starch market, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch inventories have increased, and prices have been oscillating weakly influenced by the decline in corn prices. The industry's operating rate is at a low level due to continuous losses, but demand from civil and paper - making markets is poor [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2677 yuan/ton, with a change of 0; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2320 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 [2]. - Corn monthly spread (9 - 1): 85 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11): 47 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4 [2]. - Futures open interest: 1005818 lots for yellow corn and 239427 lots for corn starch, with changes of - 3987 and 8383 respectively [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 31664 lots for corn and - 14369 lots for corn starch, with changes of - 7675 [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 199829 lots for yellow corn, with a change of - 2660; 22689 lots for corn starch, with a change of - 132 [2]. - CS - C spread of the main contract: 357 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1 [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 416 cents/bushel, with a change of 17.25; total CBOT corn open interest (weekly): 1498667 contracts, with a change of - 36301 [2]. - Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn: - 155526 contracts, with a change of - 24956 [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2426.86 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.59; factory - gate price of corn starch in Changchun: 2700 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2360 yuan/ton, with no change; factory - gate price of corn starch in Weifang: 2920 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - CIF price of imported corn: 1886.94 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.79; factory - gate price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 2860 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - International freight of imported corn: no change; basis of the main corn starch contract: 23 yuan/ton, with no change; basis of the main corn contract: - 1.59 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area and yield of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine remain unchanged [2]. - Corn inventory in southern ports: 104.1 tons, with a change of - 9.2; deep - processing corn inventory: 435.4 tons, with a change of - 21.3 [2]. - Corn inventory in northern ports: 370 tons, with a change of - 1; weekly starch enterprise inventory: 133.7 tons, with a change of 2.4 [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Import volume of corn: 19 tons; export volume of corn starch: 27780 tons; monthly feed production: 2762.1 tons [2]. - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: - 97 yuan/ton, with a change of 0; in Hebei: 13 yuan/ton, with no change; in Jilin: - 63 yuan/ton, with a change of - 7 [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Average feed corn inventory days: 31.96 days, with a change of - 0.63; deep - processing corn consumption: 117.63 tons, with a change of - 1.29 [2]. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate: 44.88%, with a change of - 1.3; starch enterprise operating rate: 50.14%, with a change of - 1.06 [2]. 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 6.79%, with a change of 0.02; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 6.94%, with no change [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 8.87%, with a change of - 0.08; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn: 8.87%, with a change of - 0.08 [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Analysts predict the global corn ending inventory for 2025/26 to be 277.46 million tons, higher than the USDA's previous forecast [2]. - Analysts expect the US corn ending inventory for 2025/26 to be 1.72 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's previous forecast [2]. - As of July 6, 2025, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, higher than market expectations [2].