广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250710

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - With the improvement of rainfall in overseas production areas, the raw material prices in Thailand are gradually weakening, and the cost - side support is weakening. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is declining, and the inventory in Qingdao continues to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to the raw material supply in each production area and the change of US tariffs [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber, Thai standard mixed rubber, etc. remained unchanged on July 9 compared with July 8. The full - milk basis and non - standard price difference decreased significantly, and the prices of cup rubber and glue in the international market slightly declined [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 1 - 5 spread increased by 8.33%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.53%, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged [1]. - Fundamental Data: In May, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, India, and China increased. The production of Thailand increased by 157.52%. The production of domestic tires decreased slightly, and the export volume increased by 7.72%. The import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35%. The production cost of dry glue in Thailand decreased slightly, and the production profit of STR20 increased by 13.40% [1]. - Inventory Change: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while the inbound and outbound rates of dry glue in Qingdao decreased [1]. Group 2: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The polysilicon futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price continued to rise. The downstream demand is weak, and the polysilicon still faces the pressure of over - supply and inventory accumulation. Although the price is rising under the policy expectation, attention should be paid to the acceptance of downstream enterprises for the rising raw material prices and the subsequent terminal demand and consumption situation [3]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon increased, with increases of 2.56% and 4.11% respectively. The N - type material basis increased by 18.70%, and the cauliflower material basis decreased by 28.41% [3]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The PS2506 contract increased by 2.31%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly, such as the PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 298.85% [3]. - Fundamental Data: The weekly output of silicon wafers decreased by 11.46%, and the monthly output of polysilicon increased by 5.10%. The import volume of polysilicon decreased by 67.16%, and the export volume decreased by 37.06% [3]. - Inventory Change: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.74%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 4.43% [3]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates. The supply is expected to remain high in July, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is mixed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of production reduction, but the long - term over - supply pressure may increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of polysilicon production changes on demand and the impact of policies [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 1.24%, and the basis of different types of industrial silicon increased to varying degrees [4]. - Monthly Spread: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2507 - 2508 spread decreased by 88.00% [4]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 6.50%, and the production in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased, while the production in Inner Mongolia decreased. The production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon increased [4]. - Inventory Change: The inventory in Xinjiang factories decreased by 13.19%, and the social inventory increased by 1.85% [4]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - Soda Ash: Although the soda ash market rebounded under the influence of short - term news, the overall supply is still in an over - supply pattern. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. It is recommended to wait and look for opportunities to short on the rebound [6]. - Glass: The glass market rebounded under the influence of policy expectations, but the current demand is in the off - season, and the rigid demand is under pressure. It is necessary to wait for more cold - repair measures to achieve a real reversal of the market, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory - Glass - Related Price and Spread: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged. The glass 2505 and 2509 contracts increased slightly, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread: The prices of soda ash in North China and Central China remained unchanged, and the price in East China decreased by 1.60%. The soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts increased by 0.81%, and the 05 - 09 spread decreased [6]. - Supply: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.64%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 4.02% [6]. - Inventory: The glass factory inventory decreased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.41%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 17.99% [6]. - Real Estate Data: The new - construction area, completion area, and sales area increased year - on - year, while the construction area decreased [6]. Group 5: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core View - The log futures fluctuated, and the prices of main benchmark delivery products decreased. The inventory decreased significantly last week, and the demand increased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, the log market will enter a period of weak supply and demand in the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Price: The prices of log futures contracts 2509 and 2511 decreased slightly. The prices of main benchmark delivery products in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan per cubic meter [8]. - Cost: The import theoretical cost increased by 4% due to the change of RMB - US dollar exchange rate [8]. - Supply: The port shipping volume increased by 13.20%, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 7.94% [8]. - Inventory: The national log inventory decreased by 3.87% week - on - week, and the inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased [8]. - Demand: The national log daily average outbound volume increased by 2%, and the demand in Shandong increased by 10% [8].