永安期货有色早报-20250711

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap substitution, but there is strong support below, and a significant drop requires a macro black swan event with a low probability currently [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand. In a low - inventory situation, pay attention to far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage [1] - The idea of short - allocating zinc remains unchanged, and short positions can be established on rebounds. The internal - external positive arbitrage can continue to be held [4] - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [9] - Lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,100 - 17,500 next week, and if affected by the macro environment and the price remains above 17,200, it may trigger a risk of a price - support cycle [11] - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and pay attention to high - short opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [13] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production and there is no obvious recovery in short - term production [17] - Carbonate lithium is expected to continue to be in a state of oversupply next week, with prices under upward pressure, but the "anti - involution" policy may boost sentiment [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices showed a reverse V - shaped trend. The ADP and non - farm data were inconsistent, and the overall interest - rate cut expectation was unstable. The "Great Beauty" bill was implemented, and short - term broad fiscal policy may have a certain stimulating effect [1] - Domestically, inventory has increased, and the start - up rate has declined significantly. It is expected to continue to decline in the off - season from July to August, and copper consumption is restricted. The scrap - refined price difference has widened, and the scrap - refined substitution effect will weaken. A moderate inventory accumulation is expected from July to August [1] Aluminum - Supply has increased slightly, with aluminum ingot imports providing an increment from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with aluminum product exports remaining stable and photovoltaic demand declining, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced [1] - In the inventory aspect, supply and demand are expected to be balanced in July. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand [1] Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. In July, the domestic TC has increased by 200 yuan/ton compared with June, and the imported TC has increased slightly. Some smelters are under maintenance, but new production capacities in the southwest and central China have been realized, and the zinc ingot output is expected to increase by more than 5,000 tons [4] - Domestically, demand has weakened seasonally, and the spot premium has basically leveled off. Overseas, European demand is weak, but some smelters face production resistance due to processing fees, and the spot premium has increased slightly [4] - Domestically, social inventory has increased, and overseas LME inventory has decreased after May, mainly because more overseas zinc ingots have flowed into China [4] Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production has remained at a high level, and nickel bean imports have increased in May. On the demand side, it is generally weak, and the LME premium has strengthened slightly [6] - Overseas nickel plate inventory has remained stable, and domestic inventory has decreased slightly. After the rumor that the Philippines' ban on raw ore exports has been repealed, concerns about ore - end disturbances have eased [6] Stainless Steel - Since late May, some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron have remained stable [9] - Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has increased slightly, and some exchange warehouse receipts have expired and been removed. Fundamentals are generally weak, and spot pressure has increased after demand has weakened [9] Lead - This week, lead prices rose moderately. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The expansion of recycling plants has led to a shortage of waste batteries, and the low - profit situation has improved but the low - start - up rate remains [11] - On the demand side, battery inventory is high, the battery start - up rate has rebounded this week, and the market has expectations for the peak season. The scrap - refined price difference is - 50, and the willingness to sell recycled lead has increased but the receiving is poor [11] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires further negotiation. The processing fee at the ore end is low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling to maintain [13] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and the growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline. Domestic inventory has increased, and overseas consumption has continued to rush to install, but the inflection point of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging [13] Industrial Silicon - This week, Hesheng's Xinjiang production area continued to cut production, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. Overall, due to the large - scale production cut by the leading enterprise, the monthly output in July and subsequent months is expected to decline, and the supply - demand balance has shifted to inventory reduction [17] - The basis has strengthened rapidly, stimulating the downstream's speculative and inventory - replenishment sentiment. The market expectation has shifted from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. If production does not recover significantly in the short term, the industrial silicon futures price is expected to oscillate [17] Carbonate Lithium - This week, carbonate lithium prices rose due to the "anti - involution" policy. Spot transactions are mainly based on the 09 - contract price, and the difference in prices between upstream and downstream has led to average transactions. Downstream enterprises settle at a later point, and there is inventory dumping at a reduced basis [18] - High prices have stimulated the resumption of production of some production lines in Sichuan, and salt lakes are continuing to increase production. Some factories have maintenance plans, and external - procurement projects have sufficient hedging profits and are in production [18] - Downstream enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see state, only maintaining safety inventory. Overall, inventory has increased this week. The willingness to deliver to the warehouse has improved, and the number of registered warehouse receipts has increased [18]