PTA、MEG早报-20250711

Report Overview - Report Name: PTA&MEG Morning Report - July 11, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - PTA: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The supply is expected to increase in July, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factories have inventory pressure, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - MEG: The supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The price will be mainly sorted in the low - range, and attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and cost changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - PTA Daily View - Fundamental: The PTA futures followed the cost side to fluctuate and close higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The 7 - month cargo was traded at 09 + 0~20, and the price negotiation range was around 4720 - 4750. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4735, and the 09 - contract basis is - 7, with the futures price at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production. The supply increases year - on - year, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factories have inventory pressure. The PTA spot market is bearish, and the price follows the cost [5]. - MEG Daily View - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market trading was acceptable. The intraday disk fluctuated upward, and the near - term cargo negotiation was around a premium of 68 - 71 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The afternoon spot was traded at a high of 4400 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4386, and the 09 - contract basis is 61, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing [6]. - Expectation: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The price will be mainly sorted in the low - range, and attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and cost changes [6]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol total production, supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - Price and Basis Data: It includes the price changes of spot and futures of PTA, MEG, and related products on July 10 and July 9, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [14]. 5. Influence Factor Summary - Positive Factors: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [9]. - Negative Factors: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is in a downward trend due to the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand [10]. 6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the disk rebounds [11].