摩根士丹利：阿里巴巴-2026 财年第一季度业绩预览，投资增加带来盈利压力，下调目标价

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Alibaba Group Holding with a revised price target of US$150, down from US$180, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of US$107.99 [7][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Alibaba is facing earnings pressure due to heightened investments in instant commerce, with an estimated Rmb10 billion in investments for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, leading to a projected 16% year-over-year decline in consolidated EBITA [1][4]. - Despite the near-term earnings challenges, Alibaba is viewed as the best AI enabler in the sector, with cloud revenue expected to grow by 22% year-over-year [3][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecasts - For 1QF26, total consolidated revenue is expected to increase by 2% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITA is projected to decline by 16% due to investments in food delivery and quick commerce [4][12]. - The report anticipates a significant drop in combined EBITA for the Travel and Local Services segments, with a forecasted decline of over 40% year-over-year in the second quarter [2][5]. Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue estimates for fiscal year 2026 have been trimmed by 4%, with adjusted EBITA forecasts reduced by 26% for FY26 and 18% for FY27 due to the impact of increased investments [5][13]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to Alibaba is expected to decrease by 23.9% for FY26, reflecting the challenges posed by the current investment strategy [13]. Valuation Methodology - The price target adjustment to US$150 is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, with a raised weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to 11% due to increased competitive risks [14][15].