摩根士丹利：中国医疗健康-贸易谈判

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is classified as Attractive [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant supply chain reconfigurations among major pharmaceutical companies, with investments in the US driven by tax cuts and a pro-innovation government stance [3]. - A 20% tariff on Chinese pharmaceutical imports is currently in effect, which is notably lower than the reciprocal tariff rates on other Chinese imports [2][6]. - The imminent pharmaceutical-specific trade deal aims to re-shore manufacturing and create jobs in the US [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Trade Talks and Tariffs - Prior to recent trade talks, the US had no import tariffs on formulations and a 1.7% average on active pharmaceutical ingredients. A 20% tariff was imposed on Chinese pharmaceuticals, significantly lower than the 145% reciprocal rate on other imports [2][6]. - The report anticipates that markets will react to the end of the "90-day pause" on tariffs, although specific policies for Chinese biopharma will likely be introduced later [6]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Major pharmaceutical companies such as Lilly, J&J, Merck, Novartis, Roche, and BeiGene have announced substantial capital expenditures in the US, motivated by tax incentives and risk mitigation [3]. - Leading Chinese Contract Development and Manufacturing Organizations (CDMOs) like WuXi Group are shifting their capital expenditures to Singapore and the US, citing favorable tariffs and similar manufacturing economics [3]. Company Ratings - The report includes ratings for various companies within the China healthcare sector, with notable mentions such as: - 3SBio (1530.HK) rated as Overweight - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093.HK) rated as Overweight - Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015.SZ) rated as Underweight [61].