摩根士丹利：倍数扩张的光学组件

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Ciena Corporation (CIEN) to Underweight (UW) from Equal-weight (EW) with a price target of $70, down from $73 [6][33] - Corning Inc (GLW) and Coherent Corp (COHR) have their price targets increased to $50 from $44 and $92 from $83 respectively [6][13] - Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) price target raised to $85 from $76 [6][13] Core Insights - The optical sector outlook is positive, driven by increasing data speed demands necessitating more fiber and optical transmission, benefiting companies like CIEN, GLW, LITE, and COHR, which have seen an average increase of approximately 80% since early 2024 [3][8] - Despite the positive revenue trajectory, margin health remains a concern, particularly for CIEN, which has limited EPS upside due to its exposure to lower-margin datacom businesses [3][4] - The report highlights that while optical names have experienced significant multiple expansions, earnings revisions have not kept pace, indicating potential risks for further valuation increases [8][18] Summary by Company Ciena Corporation (CIEN) - CIEN's revenue estimates for FY26 have increased by 5% since March 2024, but EPS estimates are down by 9%, primarily due to disappointing gross margins from its pluggables business [25][33] - The downgrade to UW reflects limited potential for positive EPS revisions, with a current P/E multiple of 25x FY26 estimates [4][33] - CIEN's earnings power is projected at approximately $3.33, with a bear case valuation of $26 and a bull case of $98 [33][65] Corning Inc (GLW) - GLW's revenue estimates for FY26 are 11% higher than in March 2024, with EPS estimates up by 23% [52] - The report maintains an Equal-weight rating, with a price target of $50, reflecting a 19x multiple on FY26 earnings [57][79] - GLW's growth is supported by its fiber business, although macroeconomic factors and tariffs pose risks [57][84] Coherent Corp (COHR) - COHR has seen a 100% increase since early 2024, with FY26 revenue estimates 5% higher than in March 2024 and EPS estimates up by 6% [47] - The report maintains an Equal-weight rating with a price target of $92, reflecting a 20x multiple on FY26 earnings [51][96] - COHR's margin recovery is noted, but the report remains cautious due to ongoing tariff uncertainties and market volatility [47][96] Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) - LITE's revenue estimates for FY26 are 10% higher than in March 2024, with EPS estimates up by 1% [34] - The report maintains an Equal-weight rating with a price target of $85, reflecting a 21x multiple on FY26 earnings [46][34] - LITE's valuation is considered full at a P/E of approximately 23x, given its historical trading range [37][34]