大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250711

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall situation of LLDPE and PP is bearish, with cost support and new capacity release and weak demand as the main factors. The market is expected to fluctuate today due to the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [4][6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for agricultural films, and downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity production. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (+30), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 47, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.7%, which is bearish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000), which is bearish [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - Main Position: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC has increased production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and there is still production pressure. The industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support [6] - Negative Factors: New capacity release and weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Game between cost and demand, tariff policy [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7200 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 88, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.2%, which is bullish [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000), which is neutral [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [7] - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC has increased production for the fourth consecutive month. The downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - Likely Factors: Cost support [9] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [9] - Main Logic: Game between cost and demand, tariff policy [9] Market Data - LLDPE: The spot price of delivery products is 7280 (+30), the 09 - contract price is 7329 (+51), the basis is - 49 (-21), the warehouse receipt is 5831 (0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 554,000 tons (+54,000), and the PE social inventory is 518,000 tons (+10,000) [10] - PP: The spot price of delivery products is 7200 (0), the 09 - contract price is 7112 (+34), the basis is 88 (-34), the warehouse receipt is 8284 (+933), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 581,000 tons (+11,000), and the PP social inventory is 261,000 tons (+9,000) [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 12.4% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17]