大越期货沪铜早报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 78,625 with a basis of 25, indicating a premium over the futures, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased on July 10, and the SHFE copper inventory increased compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, uncertainties in US trade tariffs, geopolitical disturbances, and a 50% increase in US copper tariffs, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trend, and main positions presents a mixed picture with both bullish and bearish factors. The expected market situation is complex due to multiple factors such as Fed policies, trade tariffs, and geopolitical issues [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific bullish and bearish factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - No specific data analysis is provided in the given text, only the format for presenting spot prices, changes, and inventory information is shown [6]. 期现价差 - No relevant content provided. Exchange Inventory - Copper inventories increased on July 10, and the SHFE copper inventory increased compared to last week [2]. Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. CFTC - No relevant content provided. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].