大越期货玻璃早报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2]. - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, and it is the seasonal off - peak demand season. Downstream purchases as needed, and the inventory of glass factories continues to accumulate [5]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1083 yuan/ton, up 4.64% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safe large - sized glass was 1076 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the main basis was - 7 yuan/ton, down 115.56% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1076 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has a significant negative feedback, and the glass production has continued to decline to a historical low [3]. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country was 222, with an operating rate of 75.15%, and the number of operating production lines was at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of float glass was 156,800 tons, and the production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period in history [22][24]. Fundamentals - Demand - In April 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6808 million tons. The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [4][28]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.87% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2021, the production increased by 9.88% year - on - year, and the consumption increased by 6.87% year - on - year [44].