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铁矿石早报(2025-7-11)-20250711
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-11 02:12

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with an increase in port inventory. The market rumor of crude steel production reduction policy and the easing of trade wars exist. The domestic demand is expected to decrease while imports will increase, and there are domestic capacity - reduction plans. The report suggests a volatile and slightly bullish outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals this month will remain at a relatively high level, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is increasing, there are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies, and trade wars are easing; bearish [2] - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 773 with a basis of 10; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to the futures price is 844 with a basis of 80, spot is at a premium to futures; neutral [2] - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,485.9 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2] - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - Main Position: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2] - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, imports are increasing, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market, with a volatile and slightly bullish view [2] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish Factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses [5] - Bearish Factors: Increased future shipments, weak terminal demand [5] Other Catalogs - Iron ore port spot price: No detailed information provided [7] - Iron ore basis: No detailed information provided [12] - Iron ore import profit: No detailed information provided [15] - Iron ore shipments: No detailed information provided [18] - Iron ore port and steel mill inventory: No detailed information provided [21] - Iron ore arrivals and port clearance volume: No detailed information provided [23] - Iron ore daily consumption: No detailed information provided [26] - Steel enterprise production situation: No detailed information provided [29] - Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mill daily hot metal: No detailed information provided [31]