大越期货油脂早报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, which affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysia's palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the production season begins, palm oil supply will increase [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,214, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - Market: The futures price is trading below the 20-day moving average, while the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100 [2]. Palm Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the future [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,836, with a basis of 198, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - Market: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,450 - 8,850 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,585, with a basis of 117, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - Market: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - 利空: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].