大越期货白糖早报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic white sugar produced is about to be cleared from inventory, and the profit window for imported sugar has opened. In the future, sales will mainly consist of imported sugar. Considering that most of the imported sugar is still in transit, the impact on domestic spot prices is relatively small. The 09 contract will fluctuate around 5800 in the short term [6][10]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, and increased syrup tariffs. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a surplus in the new year's global supply, the opening of the import profit window, and increased import impact [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - Fundamentals: Czarnikow predicts a global sugar market surplus of 7.5 million tons in the 25/26 season. USDA expects global sugar production to increase by 4.7% year-on-year and consumption to grow by 1.4% in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, in the 24/25 season, China had produced 11.1621 million tons of sugar, sold 8.1138 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.69% (66.17% in the same period last year). In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 330,000 tons, and imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 150,700 tons. This is bearish [5]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6130, with a basis of 325 (for the 09 contract), which is at a premium to the futures. This is bullish [7]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 3.0483 million tons. This is bullish [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average. This is bullish [7]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear. This is bullish [7]. - Expectation: Currently, domestic white sugar production is about to clear inventory, and the profit window for imported sugar has opened. In the future, sales will mainly consist of imported sugar. Considering that most of the imported sugar is still in transit, the impact on domestic spot prices is relatively small. The 09 contract will fluctuate around 5800 in the short term [6][10]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - 25/26 Global White Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Forecast: The global production is expected to reach 202 million tons, a record second high, with Brazil, India, and Thailand leading the increase. The global consumption is expected to be 198 million tons, with Asian demand growing by 1.3% and African demand growing at the fastest rate of 2.2%. There will be a surplus of 2.7 million tons, shifting from a shortage to a surplus, but institutional forecasts vary. The inventory-to-consumption ratio is between 52% - 54%, with inventory pressure easing but still below the long-term average. The global trade volume is expected to be 62 million tons, with Brazil's exports accounting for over 50% and Thailand's exports returning to a high level [36]. - Recent 3-Month Institutional Forecasts: USDA predicts a surplus of 11.397 million tons (doubling year-on-year), with Brazil and India's increased production leading to a loose supply pattern. Datagro predicts a surplus of 2.58 million tons, due to India's resumption of exports and Brazil's high production. ISO forecasts that the 24/25 shortage of 4.88 million tons may turn into a surplus in 25/26, with regional shortages easing. StoneX expects a global production increase of 3.3 million tons and a surplus of 4.3 million tons, as weak consumption growth cannot offset the supply pressure [39]. - China's Sugar Data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugarcane and beet planting areas, harvest areas, yields, and sugar production are expected to remain relatively stable. China's sugar imports are expected to be 5 million tons each year, and consumption is expected to increase slightly to 15.9 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [41]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content