大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11] - The lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,540 - 64,820 yuan/ton [8] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuously high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient receiving willingness at the power battery end [9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,813 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in July 2025 will be 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase from June [8] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,110 tons, a 0.48% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,071 tons, a 1.38% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory will decrease [8] - Cost: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 62,936 yuan/ton, a 0.69% day - on - day increase, with a loss of 160 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 68,253 yuan/ton, a 0.68% day - on - day increase, with a loss of 7,005 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with high profit margins and strong production motivation [8] - Basis: On July 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8] - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 58,598 tons, a 0.49% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 40,765 tons, a 0.66% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 41,430 tons, a 6.34% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 140,793 tons, a 1.77% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8] - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish signal [8] - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish signal [8] 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Lithium ore: The price of 6% lithium spodumene increased by 1.05% to 673 US dollars/ton; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate increased by 1.44% to 1,405 yuan/ton [13] - Lithium salt: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.55% to 63,650 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.57% to 62,050 yuan/ton [13] - Other products: The prices of some products such as anhydrous iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [13] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Production: The monthly production of lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium has increased to varying degrees [16] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 0.50% to 516,747 tons, and the import volume from Australia increased by 24.75% to 371,378 tons. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 25.37% to 21,145.78 tons [16] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium ore market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the monthly production has increased [29] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased, and the import volume from Chile has decreased significantly [29] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [34] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly production capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have shown different trends [37] - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different periods [37] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [40] 3.6 Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - Different raw materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations, and most are in a loss state [43][46] - The cost - profit of lithium hydroxide production also shows different trends [49] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate at smelters, downstream, and other sources have different changes [51] - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide at downstream and smelters has different changes [51] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of lithium batteries have different trends [54] - Production: The monthly production and shipment volume of lithium battery cells have changed [54] - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed in different periods [54] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors have different trends [60] - Production: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors have different trends [60] - Supply - demand balance: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with different supply - demand gaps in different months [63] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials have different trends [67] - Production: The weekly production capacity utilization rate and monthly production of ternary materials have different trends [67] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [69] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The prices of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have different trends [71] - Production: The monthly production and production capacity utilization rate of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have different trends [71][74] - Export: The monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has changed [74] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - Production: The production volume of new energy vehicles has changed, including plug - in hybrid and pure - electric vehicles [79] - Sales: The sales volume and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed [79][80] - Inventory: The inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have changed [83]