大越期货豆粕早报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. soybean market is affected by Trump's tariff war and technical adjustments, waiting for the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market may return to a range - bound pattern due to factors such as increased imports of soybeans and weak spot prices [8]. - The domestic soybean market is affected by factors like increased imports of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and is also in a weak and volatile state [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on U.S. soybean planting and growth, imports of soybeans, and China - U.S. tariff negotiations [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving in China reached a high in June. After May Day, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories at oil mills rebounded from low levels, and the soybean market declined due to the fall of U.S. soybeans [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - festival prices. With the weakening pressure of the China - U.S. tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills supported short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - U.S. tariff war made soybean meal maintain short - term volatility, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - U.S. tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Likely to Rise: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic soybean meal inventories at oil mills, and uncertainties in U.S. soybean - producing area weather [13]. - Likely to Fall: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Likely to Rise: Support from the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Likely to Fall: The continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2790, with a basis of - 164, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of soybean meal at oil mills is 822,400 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 95, indicating a premium to futures. The inventory of soybeans at oil mills is 6.364 million tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The short positions of the main contract increased, and funds flowed in [10]. Other Information - The import volume of soybeans arriving in China reached a high in June, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal at oil mills continued to rise. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to decline, and the demand for forward stocking weakened [44][45][47]. - The cost of importing Brazilian soybeans increased slightly, and the profit of imported soybeans on the disk fluctuated slightly [51]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs rebounded recently, while the price of piglets remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit rebounded from a low level [53][55][57][59].