工业硅期货早报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is at a high level, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang is 3475 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease compared to the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; and major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - Expectation: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week. The forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.5GW, a 3.36% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 181,300 tons, a 5.67% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,220 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On July 10th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4955 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [9]. - Expectation: Supply scheduling will increase in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support has strengthened, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of most futures contracts have increased, and the spot prices of some specifications have remained stable [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory have all decreased [15]. - Production: The production of some sample enterprises has increased, while the production of others has decreased [15]. - Cost and Profit: The costs and profits of some regions and specifications have changed slightly [15]. Polysilicon - Price: The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry has increased slightly [17]. - Inventory: The inventory of silicon wafers has decreased, while the inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories has increased [17]. - Production: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown a downward trend [17]. - Supply and Demand: The supply and demand balance shows a certain degree of imbalance, with supply exceeding demand in some months [17].