大越期货菜粕早报-20250711

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, the price may rise and then fall, and return to the range oscillation in the short - term due to the impact of soybean meal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rising, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The low operation rate of rapeseed meal oil mills and low inventory support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season. Although the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory of oil mills is under no pressure. The tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive factor, but the positive effect may be limited as there is no tariff increase on rapeseed imports [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, improving the supply shortage expectation in the spot market while maintaining good demand expectations. The slight decrease in Canada's annual rapeseed production supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. The global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Base difference: The spot price is 2520, and the base difference is - 91, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% from last week's 1.1 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67% compared with 3 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - Supply - demand balance sheets: The report provides the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet and the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2014 to 2023, including data such as harvest area, inventory, production, and consumption [25][26]. - Import situation: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [27]. - Inventory situation: The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has rebounded from a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has slightly decreased [29][31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions have increased, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate between 2600 - 2660. In the short - term, it may rise and then fall due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, and return to the range oscillation under the influence of soybean meal [9].