大越期货沥青期货早报-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has increased production recently, leading to elevated supply pressure, but it may decrease next week. The demand side shows that the overall demand recovery is below expectations and remains sluggish, with current demand lower than the historical average. The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. The inventory shows continuous destocking in social inventory, continuous stockpiling in factory inventory, and continuous destocking in port inventory. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3598 - 3660 [7][9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is high supply pressure and weak demand recovery [12][13][14]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In June 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 33.1376%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.10%, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 597,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.33%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - Demand: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 31.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage point; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 14.0382%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 26%, a month - on - month increase of 2.00 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 452.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,113.1829 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.54%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - Inventory: On July 10, the social inventory was 1.318 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; the factory inventory was 748,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.03%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30.43%. Social inventory is continuously destocking, factory inventory is continuously stockpiling, and port inventory is continuously destocking [10]. - Market Outlook: It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3598 - 3660 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Base Spread: On July 10, the spot price in Shandong was 3,825 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 196 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price [10]. - Contract Price Changes: The prices of different contracts showed various changes, such as the 01 contract price increasing by 0.50%, the 02 contract price decreasing by 0.12% in weekly inventory, etc. [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: The asphalt profit chart shows the profit changes over time, and the coking - asphalt profit spread chart reflects the spread changes between coking and asphalt profits [38][42]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: The weekly shipment volume chart shows the shipment volume changes of asphalt small - sample enterprises over time [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory chart shows the inventory changes over time [46]. - Production Volume: The weekly and monthly production volume charts show the production volume changes of asphalt over time [49]. - Crude Oil Price and Production: The chart of the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil shows their trends over time [54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production: The local refinery asphalt production chart shows the production volume changes of local refineries over time [56]. - 开工率: The weekly and usage - based asphalt construction rate charts show the construction rate changes over time [59][97]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: The maintenance loss estimation chart shows the estimated maintenance loss volume over time [61]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The exchange warehouse receipt chart shows the changes in exchange warehouse receipts over time [64]. - Social and Factory Inventories: The social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) charts show the inventory changes over time [68]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: The factory inventory inventory ratio chart shows the ratio changes over time [71]. - Import and Export Situation: The export and import trend charts of asphalt show the import and export volume changes over time, and the chart of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt shows the price difference changes [74][77]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production: The petroleum coke production chart shows the production volume changes over time [80]. - Apparent Consumption: The apparent consumption chart shows the consumption volume changes over time [83]. - Downstream Demand: The downstream demand includes highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, roller sales), and asphalt construction rate (heavy - traffic asphalt, usage - based asphalt, downstream construction situation) [86][90][95]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the monthly production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data from January 2024 to July 2025 [104].