大越期货甲醇早报-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. The port methanol is in a multi - empty game and will fluctuate, while the inland methanol is expected to move sideways. Attention should be continuously paid to port inventory, olefin external procurement, and macro - related news [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For methanol 2509, the port has a risk of inventory accumulation due to inland inflow and concentrated imports, but there is macro - support. The inland has no supply pressure due to device maintenance, but downstream losses and high inventory of users limit price increases. The expected price range for MA2509 is 2350 - 2420 yuan/ton [5]. - The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2430 yuan/ton, with a basis of 32 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [5]. - As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, an increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply in coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [5]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [5]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Concerns - Positive factors: Some devices are shut down, Iranian methanol production is reduced, port inventory is low, new acetic acid devices are put into operation, and northwest CTO plants purchase methanol externally [6]. - Negative factors: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the off - season, MTBE production has declined, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, in Jiangsu, it decreased by 2.25% week - on - week to 2390 yuan/ton. The futures closing price increased by 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Basis and Spread: The basis and various spreads have also changed. For example, the basis of the 09 contract is 32, and the import spread decreased by 27 yuan/ton [5][8]. - Operating Rate: The weighted average national operating rate decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in different regions such as Shandong and the Southwest have also decreased [8]. - Inventory: The inventory in East and South China ports has increased, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas has also increased [5]. - Production Profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol decreased by 38 yuan/ton, the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 120 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol decreased by 10 yuan/ton [15]. - Traditional Downstream Products: The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have decreased to varying degrees. Their production profits and loads have also changed [28][32][35][39]. - MTO: The MTO production profit increased by 176 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [44]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic: Many domestic methanol plants are in maintenance, including those in the Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast regions, with different maintenance reasons and durations [54]. - Overseas: Iranian methanol plants are in the process of resuming production, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia and Malaysia are operating normally [55].