摩根士丹利：IT 硬件-2025 年第二季度CIO调查要点：硬件支出持平

Investment Rating - The industry view is characterized as In-Line, with a hardware budget growth expectation of 1.5% year-over-year (Y/Y) for 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter [7][9]. Core Insights - The 2Q25 CIO Survey indicates that hardware spending plans for 2025 remain largely unchanged compared to 1Q25, with a slight improvement from earlier cautious expectations of 0.7% growth [3][7]. - Small and medium-sized business (SMB) hardware spending intentions improved, while large enterprises expect a robust growth of 2.4% in 2025 [7][15]. - Despite the overall tepid growth in hardware spending, the impact of AI initiatives is seen as a potential tailwind for hardware budgets, with 66% of AI projects expected to be in production by 2026 [7][30]. Summary by Sections Hardware Spending Expectations - CIOs expect hardware spending to grow by 1.5% Y/Y in 2025, which is a deceleration of 20 basis points from the previous year and below the 10-year average of 1.8% [3][11][13]. - The current enterprise hardware spending environment is described as stable but sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainties, which could lead to further spending volatility in the second half of 2025 [3][7]. Company Size Insights - Large enterprises with revenues over $10 billion anticipate a 2.4% increase in hardware spending, while SMBs with revenues between $500 million and $1 billion expect a growth of approximately 1% Y/Y [15][17]. - The deceleration in hardware spending growth is primarily attributed to SMBs and mid-market customers, while large enterprises show a positive outlook [16][20]. AI and Hardware Spending - Gen AI initiatives are not expected to cannibalize existing hardware budgets, with 39% of CIOs indicating that funding for Gen AI will come from new IT budget dollars [30][31]. - The majority of AI projects are projected to be in production beyond 2025, suggesting a longer-term opportunity for hardware spending growth [30][33]. Market Valuation and Stock Performance - Hardware stocks are currently trading at approximately 19x P/E, which is significantly above historical averages, leading to a cautious outlook for the group [35][39]. - The report favors enterprise hardware stocks with exposure to AI and data centers, while remaining cautious on traditional hardware OEMs and consumer hardware names [36].