摩根士丹利：中国科技硬件-人工智能与非人工智能

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Greater China Technology Hardware industry is "In-Line" [2]. Core Insights - The technology hardware sector has outperformed major market indexes year-to-date (YTD), with smartphone-related stocks showing significant gains [5][6]. - YTD share price performance for tech hardware stocks indicates an increase of 66% for top performers and a decrease of 38% for bottom performers, compared to HSI's increase of 19% [9]. - Demand forecasts suggest limited shipment volume growth across various segments, including servers, PCs, and smartphones, with specific projections for 2025 indicating a slight increase in server shipments to 14.5 million units [11]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Greater China tech hardware stocks have outperformed major market indexes YTD, except for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) [5][6]. - The share price performance of tech hardware stocks shows a range of increases from 66% for top performers to declines of 38% for the bottom performers [9]. Demand Forecasts - Limited shipment volume growth is expected across various categories, including servers, PCs, and smartphones, with specific figures indicating a forecast of 14.5 million server units for 2025 [11]. - Smartphone shipments are projected to show a cyclical recovery starting in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in 5G smartphone sales [28]. Valuation Insights - The report highlights a justified valuation premium for companies involved in the AI hardware supply chain, with specific companies showing significant AI revenue contributions [12]. - The analysis includes a detailed breakdown of AI revenue and profit mixes for various companies, indicating a strong focus on AI-related hardware [12]. Production and Cost Analysis - The report discusses the cost implications of producing Apple products in different regions, noting that iPhones produced in the US have a 75% higher FOB price compared to those made in China [15]. - A detailed cost analysis shows that the bill of materials (BoM) for iPhones varies significantly by production location, impacting overall pricing strategies [15]. Market Trends - The report identifies Xiaomi as a key player with a rich product portfolio and rapid growth in electric vehicle (EV) deliveries, indicating a diversification strategy beyond traditional tech hardware [34][36]. - The smartphone market is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with expectations for increased shipments and demand in the coming years [28].