摩根士丹利：京东集团-2025 年第二季度前瞻 - 受外卖大战影响最大

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal-weight rating for JD.com, Inc. with a price target cut from US$39.00 to US$28.00, reflecting a significant downward adjustment in earnings estimates due to food delivery investments [5][7][14]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to invest over Rmb10 billion in food delivery during 2Q25, leading to a projected 63% year-over-year decline in non-GAAP net profit to Rmb5.3 billion, resulting in a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.58% compared to 4.96% in 2Q24 [2][5]. - The report indicates no signs of cross-selling or synergies from the food delivery investments, with JDR revenue growth expected to be minimal [3][5]. - For 2025, total revenue is projected to grow by 12% year-over-year, but non-GAAP net profit is expected to decline by 43% to Rmb27.5 billion, indicating a non-GAAP net profit margin of 2.11% [5][12]. Summary by Sections 2Q25 Preview - JD.com is projected to experience a 63% year-over-year decline in non-GAAP net profit due to substantial investments in food delivery [2][5]. - The expected non-GAAP net profit margin for 2Q25 is 1.58%, a significant drop from the previous year [2]. 3Q25 Outlook - The report forecasts a 10% year-over-year increase in total revenue for 3Q25, but a 73% decline in non-GAAP net profit to Rmb3.6 billion, resulting in a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.25% [4][5]. 2025 Financial Outlook - Total revenue is expected to reach Rmb1,298.39 billion in 2025, with a non-GAAP net profit of Rmb27.5 billion, reflecting a 43% year-over-year decline [5][12]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in earnings estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with cuts of 39%, 32%, and 30% respectively [12][14]. Valuation - The price target of US$28 implies an 11x non-GAAP P/E for 2025, which is considered justified compared to Alibaba's e-commerce business [5][14]. - The report utilizes a DCF valuation methodology with a 13% WACC and a 3% terminal growth rate assumption [14].