美银：投资者情绪：偏好风险，乐观，但未达狂喜

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment sentiment with the Global Equity Risk-Love positioned at the 76th percentile of its historical range since 1987, suggesting a favorable outlook for equities [1][17][23]. Core Insights - The Global Risk-Love indicator reflects a risk-loving sentiment among investors, with emerging markets showing potential for positive returns as they approach euphoric levels [4][5]. - Historical data suggests that when the Global Risk-Love transitions from depressed levels to euphoric levels, equities tend to perform well over the subsequent 12 months, barring a downturn in the global economic cycle [4][5]. - The report highlights a notable dispersion in risk sentiment across different regions, with some emerging markets like South Africa and Brazil showing strong bullish signals, while others like Indonesia and Thailand exhibit panic [2][14]. Summary by Category Global Risk-Love - The Global Risk-Love indicator is currently at 76, indicating a shift towards optimism but not yet euphoric [14]. - Historical performance shows that in 13 episodes since 1987, emerging markets equities have returned an average of 24% over the next 12 months after hitting euphoric levels, with only three instances of losses coinciding with global PMI downturns [5][9]. Regional Insights - Korea's Risk-Love has improved to the 27th percentile from panic levels earlier in the year, with historical data indicating median returns of 17% over the next six months following similar recoveries [3][13]. - Emerging Markets Risk-Love is at the 44th percentile, while Asia ex-Japan is at 40th percentile, both indicating a neutral stance [28][31]. - The Philippines and South Africa are in euphoric zones at the 93rd and 98th percentiles respectively, suggesting strong bullish sentiment [48][52]. Specific Market Indicators - The report notes that 85% of central banks are currently in easing mode, which is expected to support the growth cycle [10]. - The Risk-Love indicators for various countries show significant variations, with South Africa and Poland at 98 and 93 respectively, while Indonesia remains low at 5 [14][41].