2025-07-11 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan is Overweight (OW) with a price target reduced to HK$150.00 from HK$160.00, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current price of HK$118.60 [8][27]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant decline in operating profit (OP) for Meituan, estimating a 48% year-over-year decrease in 2Q25 to Rmb8 billion, with further declines expected in subsequent quarters due to intensified competition [1][2][3]. - Long-term profitability forecasts have been adjusted downward, with the food delivery gross transaction value (GTV) margin now projected at 2.4% and the unit economics (UE) at Rmb1.15, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [5][39]. - The total revenue for 2025 is forecasted at Rmb276 billion, representing a 10% year-over-year growth, but with a significant drop in operating profit expected [4][26]. Financial Estimates - For 2Q25, CLC revenue is estimated at Rmb67 billion, a 10% increase year-over-year, while operating profit is expected to decline to Rmb8 billion [2]. - The full-year 2025 estimates include total revenues of Rmb371.6 billion and an operating profit of Rmb30 billion, down 43% year-over-year [4][26]. - Adjusted EBITDA forecasts have been cut by 43% for 2025 and 27% for 2026, reflecting the anticipated challenges in profitability [6]. Market Position and Competition - Meituan is expected to maintain its dominance in the food delivery market, although market share may decrease to over 65% from the current 70-75% due to increased competition [5][38]. - The total addressable market (TAM) for quick commerce is projected to expand, but the market is likely to be fragmented among multiple players [5][38]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [27][32].