Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The recent increase in steel prices was triggered by factors such as coal environmental inspections in June, the "anti - involution" trading in July, and expectations from the "New Urbanization" conference. The weekly steel data on July 11 showed that production decreased with apparent demand, and inventory remained stable, indicating a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The market sentiment improved, leading to better spot demand due to traders' restocking. Future market trends depend on the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the valuation fluctuations in the futures market. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Steel prices generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3160 to 3190 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3230 to 3280 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also went up [1]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of steel billets and some steel production processes changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, and the profit of rebar also showed a downward trend in some areas [1]. - Production: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.4% to 240.8 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.4% to 872.7 tons. Rebar production decreased by 2.0% to 216.7 tons, while the electric - furnace production of rebar increased by 4.2% [1]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products remained almost unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory by 0.9% and a 0.2% increase in hot - rolled coil inventory [1]. - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume increased by 30.4% to 11.5 tons, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.4%, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.5% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 iron ore futures contract showed a strong upward trend. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the current strong steel exports support the pig iron production. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, but in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices increased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts rose from 766.7 to 792.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased from 725.0 to 748.0 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.7% [3]. - Supply: The global weekly iron ore shipment volume decreased by 10.8% to 2994.9 tons, while the 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 5.1% to 2483.9 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons, and the 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume decreased by 2.0%. However, the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% [3]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both coke and coking coal futures showed an upward - fluctuating trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward tendency. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts in June, the market expected the first - round price increase to be implemented. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market improved, and the overall market showed a bottom - rebound trend. It is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coke 2601 contract, go long on the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pull - back, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage for both coke and coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the coke 09 contract rose from 1456 to 1497 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased from 872 to 897 yuan/ton. The basis of some contracts decreased [6]. - Supply: The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 tons, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%. The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [6]. - Demand: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons. The demand for coke and coking coal was affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan [6]. - Inventory: The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant's coke inventory and increases in steel mills' and port inventories. The coking coal inventory of coal mines decreased, while that of coking plants and ports increased [6]. - Supply - Demand Gap: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke increased slightly by 2.9% to - 5.4 tons [6].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250711
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-11 03:39