建信期货集运指数日报-20250711

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The price increase at the beginning of July in the spot market was better than expected, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2200 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were slightly higher than the first half, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. The peak - season price increase is expected to materialize, and the 08 contract has upward potential. For the 10 - month contract (a traditional off - season), high - short opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: At the beginning of July, the price increase was better than expected. The SCFIS settlement index rose above 2200 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were $3000, slightly higher than the first half, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. The 8 - month quotes from most airlines are yet to be reported, and it's necessary to watch if other airlines will follow HPL's price [8] - Operation Suggestions: The peak - season price increase expectation has started to recover. With good cargo volume and port congestion in Europe, the 08 contract has upward potential. For the 10 - month traditional off - season, focus on high - short opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices [8] 2. Industry News - Market Conditions from June 30 to July 4: The China export container shipping market was stable, with long - haul routes showing a differentiated trend. The composite index continued to adjust. China's June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7, and the new order index entered the expansion range. The non - manufacturing PMI remained above the boom - bust line [9] - European Routes: The eurozone's May unemployment rate was 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The EU - US tariff negotiation has uncertain prospects. The Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2101/TEU, up 3.5% from the previous period [9] - Mediterranean Routes: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, but the supply - demand fundamentals were slightly weak. The spot market booking price decreased slightly. The Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on July 4 was $2869/TEU, down 3.9% from the previous period [9] - North American Routes: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The order and employment indices shrank further. The Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on July 4 were $2089/FEU and $4124/FEU respectively, down 19.0% and 12.6% from the previous period [10] - Geopolitical Events: On July 6, the Houthi armed forces launched ballistic missiles at Israel. On June 21, Trump claimed to have "completely destroyed" Iran's nuclear facilities, but Iran said the damage was not as serious as claimed. Iran's parliament considered closing the Strait of Hormuz [10] 3. Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From June 30 to July 7, the Shanghai - Europe basic port SCFIS rose 6.3% from 2123.24 to 2258.04, while the Shanghai - US West basic port SCFIS fell 3.8% from 1619.19 to 1557.77 [12] - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes: Provided trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2508, EC2510 on July 10, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [16][18]