建信期货镍日报-20250711

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The performance of each link in the nickel industry chain is weak. The rebound of the nickel market is only a temporary phenomenon, and it is recommended to wait and see before going long [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel returned above the 120,000 integer mark, with the main contract rising 1.41%. The total open interest of the index decreased by 6,876 to 151,440 lots [8]. - In the off - season of demand, the spot trading of refined nickel is average. Enterprises purchase on demand, and the spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium - discount range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8]. - The support from the ore end weakens, and the premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore declines. There is a risk of price decline in the follow - up, and the concern about the supply side eases [8]. - The price of high - nickel ferrochrome runs at a low level. On the 10th, the average price was 905 yuan/nickel point. The loss of ferrochrome plants intensified, and some decreased production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about the impact on the external demand of stainless steel terminals, so steel mills are sluggish, and the support for ferrochrome is weak [8]. - The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,420. Some enterprises reduced production to support prices due to losses, but the demand for new - energy batteries is in the off - season, so the support for nickel sulfate is limited, and it is mainly weak [8]. 2. Industry News - On July 8, the Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far less than the approved quota of 364.1 million tons from January to June. The main reason was the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [9]. - Since January 2025, due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in biodiesel blending ratio, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), the cost pressure of the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, which significantly reduced the silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK enhance the resilience of the power system [11].