LPG早报-20250711

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating Group 2 - The overall LPG market shows a weak and volatile trend. Although the current price has dropped to a relatively low level and chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases. The domestic market presents different trends in different regions, with expected overall market fluctuations [1] Group 3 Data Summary - From July 4th to July 10th, prices such as South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed different degrees of changes. For example, South China LPG remained at 4660 on July 4th and 7th, then dropped to 4630 on July 9th and 10th; East China LPG dropped from 4529 on July 4th to 4496 on July 10th; Shandong LPG remained at 4590 from July 4th to 9th and then dropped to 4580 on July 10th. The price of propane CFR South also increased from 575 on July 4th to 585 on July 10th [1] Daily Changes - On July 10th, the daily change showed that South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 2, Shandong LPG decreased by 10, and propane CFR South decreased by 3. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4496. FEI and CP were basically flat, CP discount was basically flat, PP strengthened significantly, and the production profit of FEI and CP to PP improved [1] Weekly Views - Market Trends: The PG futures price strengthened, the monthly spread remained flat, and the 08 - 09 spread was 104. The US - Far East arbitrage window was closed. The overall futures market showed a weak and volatile trend, with a small change in the basis (349) and a slight strengthening of the August - September spread (97). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost dropped significantly, the FEI offshore discount decreased, and the CP propane - butane arrival discount increased. The overseas monthly spread weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio increased. The domestic - foreign price difference strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35) [1] - Fundamentals: Domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes were basically flat. PDH operating rate decreased to 65.49% (-5.05pct), with improved profits, and it is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive the subsequent operating rate increase [1] - Regional Markets: Shandong civil gas first decreased and then increased (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and chemical demand support, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas decreased (4529), with a general trading atmosphere. Terminals reduced prices to sell goods, and refineries reduced prices later in the week. It is expected that with more arrivals and in the off - season of demand, the East China market will still be weak. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]