原油成品油早报-20250711

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. The "Big and Beautiful Act" by Trump on July 4th ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, with eight member countries having already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump stated that a Gaza region agreement might be reached next week and plans for nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week, US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil drilling rigs as of July 4th declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The crude oil monthly spread is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. Absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Spread Data - From July 4th to July 10th, the price of BRENT fluctuated, starting at $68.30 on July 4th and reaching around $70. The DUBAI price decreased by $0.89. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased from $1.08 on July 4th to $1.22 on July 9th. The WTI - BRENT spread became more negative, reaching - $1.82 on July 8th. Other related spreads and prices also showed corresponding changes [3] - From July 4th to July 10th, SC increased by 2.80, OMAN decreased by 1.70. Domestic gasoline prices remained at 7980, and other related Asian oil - related product prices and spreads also changed [3] - From July 4th to July 10th, Japanese naphtha - BRT increased by 4.15, Singapore fuel oil 380CST贴水 decreased by 0.1, and other related Asian oil - related product prices and spreads also had corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - The EU is planning to propose a floating price cap on Russian oil as part of a new sanctions package. In June, the EU proposed to lower the G7's price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel. The new mechanism is aimed at adjusting the price cap according to global oil price fluctuations [3] - OPEC+ is discussing pausing further production increases after the next monthly increase. They have initially planned to complete the final stage of restoring 2.2 million barrels of supply in September, with a monthly increase of 550,000 barrels. They may wait before considering restoring another 1.66 million barrels per day of production [3] - According to US Bank strategist Francisco Blanch, despite global economic and geopolitical uncertainties this year, Brent crude oil prices have shown strong resilience, with an average price of $70.75 per barrel since January. China's absorption of oil surpluses in Q2 and strong consumption demand have supported oil prices [3] - The UAE's energy minister said that the UAE can increase oil production capacity in the years after 2027 [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending July 4th in the US, crude oil exports increased by 452,000 barrels per day to 2.757 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 48,000 barrels to 13.385 million barrels per day. Commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 1.69% increase. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.564 million barrels per day, a 1.61% decrease from the same period last year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 238,000 barrels to 403 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. Commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 906,000 barrels per day to 6.013 million barrels per day. EIA gasoline inventories decreased by 2.658 million barrels, and EIA refined oil inventories decreased by 825,000 barrels [5] - This week in China, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel increased. Both major refineries' gasoline and diesel production increased, while that of independent refineries decreased. The sales - to - production ratios of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5]