甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250711

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: High imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the futures price is undervalued. It is in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, it is advisable to consider long - position allocation when the price is low [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around 0 in North China and +120 in East China. The import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. The domestic linear production in June increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and new plant commissioning [7]. - PP (Polypropylene): The upstream and middle - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The downstream orders are average currently. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure, which can be alleviated if exports continue to expand or PDH plants have more maintenance [7]. - PVC: The basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. The downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventory reduction of the mid - and upstream is slowing down. Attention should be paid to plant commissioning and export sustainability in July - August. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, with stable costs and mediocre downstream performance. Focus on exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [11]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - Price Data: From July 4th to July 10th, the daily change in动力煤期货 price was 0, the江苏 spot price decreased by 5, the South China spot price increased by 15, etc. The import profit decreased by 13, and the MTO profit decreased by 44 [2]. - Market Situation: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has started. Iran has reduced its operating rate, while non - Iranian supply has increased, along with domestic supply. The market is in a bearish factor realization period [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - Price Data: From July 4th to July 10th, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained unchanged, the North China LL price increased by 30, etc. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main futures price increased by 51 [7]. - Market Situation: The two - oil inventory is at a neutral level year - on - year. The upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. The downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. The non - standard HD injection price is stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating [7]. PP (Polypropylene) - Price Data: From July 4th to July 10th, the Shandong propylene price decreased by 130, the Northeast Asia propylene price decreased by 5, etc. The export profit remained unchanged, and the main futures price increased by 34 [7]. - Market Situation: The upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is +100, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 500. Exports have been good this year, and the supply in June is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - Price Data: From July 4th to July 10th, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased by 50, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 40, etc. The North - China comprehensive profit remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20 [10][11]. - Market Situation: The basis remains stable, the downstream operating rate is seasonally weakening, and the mid - and upstream inventory reduction is slowing down. Attention should be paid to plant commissioning and export sustainability in July - August [11].