合成橡胶市场周报-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber spot price showed a weak consolidation. The ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and that of PetroChina's sales companies decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the low - price transactions at the raw material butadiene end have gradually improved. Affected by the news of a fault in an upstream device in East China, some rigid - demand purchases have followed up with price pressure. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. The cost factor supports the current butadiene rubber price, but downstream purchases remain cautious, and the resistance to shipment may increase. It is expected that the short - term inventory level may increase slightly [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedule of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises this week. An individual all - steel tire enterprise was under maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. Next week, the production schedule of the maintenance enterprises will return to the normal level, and the capacity utilization rate still has room for recovery, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [7]. - The short - term forecast for the br2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 11,200 - 11,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic cis - butadiene rubber spot price was weakly consolidated. The ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina decreased by 300 yuan/ton. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Market Outlook: Cost supports the price, but downstream purchases are cautious, and shipment resistance may increase. Short - term inventory may rise slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has room for recovery [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,200 and 11,700 [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 3.44% [11]. - Position Analysis: No specific content about position analysis results is provided. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of July 11, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was 30 [18]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of July 11, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 1,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week [21]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of July 10, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 290 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of July 10, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 591 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.25 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of July 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, a decrease of 1.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,330 tons from last week [33]. 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and Capacity Utilization: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous month. As of July 10, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, a decrease of 1.5% from last week [37]. - Production Profit: As of July 10, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,770 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons from last week [43]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points [47]. - Tire Exports: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3,404,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1,335,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 1,927,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [50].