Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated upwards. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rose to 1810 - 1850 yuan/ton, with the average price up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term output may stabilize as previously shut - down plants resume production. Agricultural demand continues to advance, and the compound fertilizer plant operating rate may slowly recover in the middle and late ten - days. However, next week, industrial demand is expected to weaken, agricultural demand growth will decrease, and the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [6]. - For the UR2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1750 - 1800 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic urea market fluctuated upwards this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rose to 1810 - 1850 yuan/ton, with the average price up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - Market Outlook: Domestic urea daily output has increased, and short - term output may stabilize. Agricultural demand continues to advance, and the compound fertilizer plant operating rate may slowly recover. But next week, industrial demand is expected to weaken, agricultural demand growth will decrease, and the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: UR2509 contract short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1750 - 1800 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.19% [10]. - Inter - delivery Spread: As of July 11, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 39 [13]. - Position Analysis: As of July 10, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 2,145 from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of July 10, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,860 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [27]. - Foreign Spot Price: As of July 10, the FOB China price of urea was 382.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Basis Trend: As of July 10, the urea basis was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of July 9, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 660 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; as of July 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.4 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity Utilization and Output: As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 15,300 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.12%; the average daily output was 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week [41]. - Inventory: As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 489,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.14%; as of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.99% [44]. - Export: In May 2025, urea exports were 2,436.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%; the average export price was 209.07 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.54% [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of July 10, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 29.83%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week [50].
瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:03