期债显著回调，等待企稳信号

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures significantly corrected this week. The "anti-involution" signal and the market's expectation of real estate updates created short-term bearish sentiment. The stock-bond seesaw effect continued to amplify, and the bond market was under full pressure. However, the current weak economic fundamentals remain unchanged, coupled with a balanced and loose capital situation. There is still room for policy easing under low inflation, and the long-term support logic of the bond market is difficult to be substantially broken in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts: The main contracts of 30-year (TL2509), 10-year (T2509), 5-year (TF2509), and 2-year (TS2509) Treasury bond futures fell by 0.49%, 0.25%, 0.24%, and 0.09% respectively this week. The closing prices of the main contracts of each term are presented in corresponding charts [12][16][22]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased. The open interests of the main contracts of TS and T decreased, while those of TF and TL increased [30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Domestic News: "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements show that China's economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 1.4 quadrillion yuan. In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. The State Council issued a notice on further strengthening employment stabilization policies. In the first half of 2025, significant breakthroughs were made in prospecting for important minerals in China [33]. - Overseas News: US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1, 2025, and plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on 22 countries starting from August. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait-and-see [35][93]. 3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes: The yield spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bonds, as well as the spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures all narrowed slightly. The inter - term spreads of 10-year contracts narrowed slightly, while those of 30-year contracts widened slightly. The inter - term spreads of 2-year contracts narrowed slightly, and those of 5-year contracts fluctuated [43][47][53]. - Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [64]. - Interest Rate Changes: Overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates decreased. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of domestic Treasury bonds weakened, with the 1 - 7Y yields rising by about 3.2 - 4.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 1.9bp and 2.5bp to 1.66% and 1.87% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both narrowed slightly [68][72]. - Open Market Operations: The central bank conducted 425.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 652.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47% [75]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, bond issuance was 1.145151 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 850.151 billion yuan and a net financing of 295 billion yuan [77]. - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1475, with a cumulative increase of 60 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased significantly, the 10 - year Treasury yield in China increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [81][87][90]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Domestic Fundamentals: In June, the price level continued to be under pressure. The CPI index improved marginally, turning from a year - on - year decrease to an increase. The PPI of industrial products remained in the negative range, falling into a deflationary range of negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "anti - involution" signal and the issuance of fiscal subsidy funds in July may support subsequent prices and promote a moderate recovery of the inflation level [93]. - Overseas Situation: The US labor market continues to show resilience, and trade risks have resurfaced. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait - and - see, and there is no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [93]. - Investment Strategy: Observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94].