Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line [6]. - On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead [6]. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line. The probability of a slight decline next week is expected to increase [6]. - Market Outlook: On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6]. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead increased compared with last week, and the foreign futures price also increased, but the ratio decreased. As of July 11, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2028 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17075 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.424 [8][12] - Premium and Discount: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount also strengthened. As of July 11, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 145 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 22.58 dollars per ton [14][16] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Foreign lead inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of July 10, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 59500 tons, an increase of 6400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was 252375 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons. The number of warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead was 50633 tons, an increase of 4194 tons [30][35] 3. Industrial Situation - Supply - Primary Lead: The operating rate and output of primary lead enterprises increased. As of July 3, 2025, the average operating rate of the main producing areas of primary lead was 79.05%, an increase of 2.25% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 36300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with last week [19][21] - Supply - Secondary Lead: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises began to rise slightly. As of July 3, 2025, the output of the main producing areas of secondary lead in China was 17700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 37.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [25][28][39] - Supply - Trade: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5555 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.9% and a year - on - year increase of 118.41%. The total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11830 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16% and a year - on - year increase of 103.51%. The import volume of refined lead was 4410.959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.82% and a year - on - year increase of 3058.56%. The import volume of crude lead was 7420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16% [41][43] - Demand - Processing Fee: The processing fee of domestic lead concentrate decreased, and the processing fee of imported ore also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the average national processing price of lead concentrate was 560 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC of lead concentrate (Pb60 imported) was - 50 dollars per thousand tons [45][47] - Demand - Automobile: The production and sales of automobiles showed a marginal decreasing trend. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The production of passenger cars was 2.313 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%; the sales volume was 2.352 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. The production of commercial vehicles was 336000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; the sales volume was 335000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 35%; the sales volume was 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%. The export of new energy vehicles was 212000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [49][51] - Demand - Battery: The price of batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4082800. As of July 11, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [53][57]
沪铅市场周报：美国法案获得通过，沪铅需求有所扩张-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:26