Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. In the short - term, the supply is still tight as the mid - month increase in large - scale farm slaughter is slow, and smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. However, there is supply pressure in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. [6][10] - On the demand side, high temperatures suppress pork purchasing, and with schools on holiday, the terminal sales are slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has declined continuously but is higher than last year. Overall, it's the off - season for consumption, and demand is weakening steadily. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening are key factors affecting short - term market conditions. [6] - Currently, tight supply supports a strong price oscillation, but the increase may slow down as the mid - month slaughter volume may recover. In the medium - term, the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the price upside. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The live pig price increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. [6][10] - Market Outlook: Short - term supply is tight, medium - term has supply pressure; demand is in the off - season and weakening. The slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry are key short - term factors. [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Interval trading or 9 - 1 positive spread trading. [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The futures price increased slightly this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. As of July 11, the net short position was 16,877 lots, an increase of 6,313 lots from last week, and there were 447 futures warrants, a decrease of 3 from last week. [10][12][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - Live Pig and Piglet Prices: The national average live pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/kg from last week but an increase of 4.48% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week but a decrease of 0.32% from last month. [27] - Pork and Sow Prices: The national average pork price was 25.35 yuan/kg in the week of July 3, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. [31] - Pig - Grain Ratio: As of the week of July 2, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.21, an increase of 0.08 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point. [36] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Sow Inventory: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the inventory was 40.42 million heads at the end of May, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.15% year - on - year increase, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. Mysteel data also showed an increase in both large - scale farms and small - scale farms. [41] - Live Pig Inventory: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a decrease of 10.12 million heads from the end of the previous quarter but an increase of 8.81 million heads year - on - year. In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small - scale farms increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. [44] - Slaughter Volume and Weight: In May, the slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid live pigs this week was 123.50 kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 kg from last week. [49] 3.3.2. Industry Profit - Livestock Farming Profit: As of July 11, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week. [54] - Poultry Farming Profit: As of July 11, the profit of laying hens was - 0.69 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.11 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.92 yuan/head. [54] 3.3.3. Domestic Market - In the first five months of 2025, China imported a total of 450,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a 4.65% year - on - year increase, and it was at a historically low level during the same period. [55][59] 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of July 10, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from last week. [62] 3.3.5. Feed - Feed Raw Material Prices: As of July 11, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,914.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton from the previous week. [68] - Feed Index and Price: As of July 11, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 935.32, a 1.63% decrease from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. [71] - Feed Production: In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons month - on - month. [76] 3.3.6. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year. [80] 3.3.7. Downstream - Slaughter Enterprises: In the 28th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 25.22%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from last week but 5.48 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.46%, an increase of 3% from last week. [83] - Slaughter Volume and Catering: In May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a 4.52% increase from the previous month. The national catering revenue in May was 457.82 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [88] 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided. [89][91]
生猪市场周报：价格上涨步伐放慢，出栏节奏是关键-20250711
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-11 09:26