瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250711

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass both increased. The rise of soda ash futures was mainly due to market expectations for the Politburo meeting and the spread of real - estate rumors. The glass market showed a bottom - up trend, with improving profits and the potential for a fundamental reversal. In the future, soda ash will face supply - demand imbalance with continued price pressure, while glass may see an increase in production and potential price fluctuations based on market news [6]. - For soda ash, the supply is abundant, the profit is declining, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is expected to remain at a low level. For glass, although the production is increasing, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and there are risks of high - level price drops if the rumors are false [6]. - The recommended trading ranges are 1150 - 1280 for SA2509 contract of soda ash with stop - loss at 1130 - 1300, and 1020 - 1150 for FG2509 of glass with stop - loss at 980 - 1180 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Soda ash futures rose 3.66% this week, mainly driven by market expectations and rumors. Glass futures rose 5.85%, with potential for a fundamental reversal due to factors like industry profit improvement and capacity adjustment [6]. - Market Outlook: Soda ash supply remains abundant, profit continues to decline, and inventory is expected to increase. Demand will likely stay at a low level, and prices will face pressure. Glass production is increasing, but real - estate demand is weak. There are risks of high - level price drops if rumors are false [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade SA2509 in the 1150 - 1280 range with stop - loss at 1130 - 1300, and FG2509 in the 1020 - 1150 range with stop - loss at 980 - 1180 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Both soda ash and glass futures prices increased this week [8]. - Spot Prices: The spot price of soda ash rose to 1215 yuan/ton in the Shahe market, and the spot price of glass rose to 1092 yuan/ton in the Shahe market [16][22]. - Basis: The basis of soda ash weakened to - 2 yuan/ton, and the basis of glass weakened to 6 yuan/ton [16][22]. - Price Spread: The soda ash - glass price spread continued to weaken, reaching 131 yuan/ton, and is expected to weaken further next week [24][26]. 3. Industrial Chain Analysis - Soda Ash Production: The domestic soda ash operating rate increased slightly to 81.2%, and the output remained at 70.89 tons. Due to price drops, production is expected to shrink and remain flat next week [28][33]. - Profit Situation: Soda ash profit declined, with the theoretical profit of ammonia - soda and combined - soda methods dropping. Glass enterprise profit increased, showing a profit transfer phenomenon [35][38]. - Glass Production: The number of cold - restarted glass production lines increased by two, with output rising slightly but still at a low level. The output of photovoltaic glass decreased in terms of operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume [40][48]. - Inventory Situation: Soda ash enterprise inventory increased to 186.34 tons due to insufficient demand, and glass enterprise inventory decreased by 2.87% to 6710.2 million weight cases, with slow de - stocking [50][54]. - Downstream Demand: Glass downstream deep - processing orders decreased slightly, with an average of 9.5 days of orders for sample enterprises [56][58].