铝类市场周报：淡季影响持续发酵，铝类或将有所承压-20250711

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina: The fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled down, and the market is gradually returning to the reality of fundamentals [6]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space of Shanghai Aluminum may be limited [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The fundamentals may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong, and the short - term upward space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: Shanghai Aluminum fluctuated strongly, up 0.29% to 20,695 yuan/ton; Alumina first rose and then fell, up 3.08% to 3,117 yuan/ton; Cast Aluminum rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton [6][8]. - Market Outlook: Alumina supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and demand is stable; Electrolytic Aluminum supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is weak; Cast Aluminum Alloy supply and demand are both weak [6][8]. - Strategy Suggestion: Lightly short the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum and Alumina, and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: As of July 11, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 20,835 yuan/ton, up 0.1%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,606 US dollars/ton, up 0.02%; Alumina futures were at 3,195 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; Cast Aluminum Alloy was at 19,930 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [11][15]. - Ratio and Spread: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 8.01, up 0.17; The aluminum - zinc spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; The copper - aluminum spread was 57,735 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan/ton [12][23]. - Spot Prices: As of July 11, 2025, the average price of alumina in Henan was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 1.94%; in Shanxi was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; in Guiyang was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 2.11%; The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat; The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with a spot discount of 70 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [26][30]. - Positions: As of July 11, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 691,850 lots, up 0.12%; The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 9,660 lots [18]. 3.3. Industry Situation - Inventory: As of July 10, 2025, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 395,725 tons, up 10.86%; SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 103,197 tons, up 9.05%; Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 412,000 tons, down 2.83%. As of July 11, SHFE electrolytic aluminum warrants were 51,980 tons, up 35.07%; LME electrolytic aluminum registered warrants were 387,500 tons, up 11.11% [34]. - Raw Materials: In May 2025, alumina production was 7.488 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; The cumulative production from January to May was 37.401 million tons, up 9.5% year - on - year. The total import of bauxite increased, and the port inventory rebounded. The domestic bauxite nine - port inventory was 24.54 million tons, up 50,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - Scrap Aluminum: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. In May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 159,700.92 tons, up 3.7% year - on - year; the export was 72.44 tons, up 34.3% year - on - year [43]. - Production and Trade: In May 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, up 5% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to May was 18.59 million tons, up 4% year - on - year. The import of electrolytic aluminum increased year - on - year. The production of aluminum products, cast aluminum alloy, and aluminum alloy all increased, with different trends in imports and exports [49][53][57][60][63]. - Downstream Markets: In May 2025, the real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 93.72, down 0.13 from last month. Infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price is expected to decline slightly with fluctuations in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [73].