菜籽类市场周报：国际贸易局势不稳，菜油期价震荡回落-20250711

Report Information - Report Title: Rapeseed Products Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Xu Fangli [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended, and the market's short - term volatility may intensify due to factors such as weather in Canada, MPOB report, US EPA hearing results, and domestic supply - demand situation [9][8] - For rapeseed meal, short - term participation is also recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The market may maintain a volatile trend in the short term influenced by US soybean conditions and domestic supply - demand factors [12][13] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation [9] - Market Review: The rapeseed oil futures closed down this week, with the 09 contract closing at 9607 yuan/ton, a decrease of 168 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - Outlook: Canada's rapeseed growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. Rainfall in Canada may ease drought. The MPOB report is bearish, but July 1 - 10 export data provides some support. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, supply is ample, and inventory pressure is high, but output pressure weakens, and future imports may be affected [10] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12] - Market Review: The rapeseed meal futures closed up this week, with the 09 contract closing at 2633 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week [13] - Outlook: US soybean conditions are good, and domestic supply is abundant due to imported soybeans. However, the peak season for aquatic product breeding boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures closed down, total positions were 266,478 lots, a decrease of 57,490 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures closed up, total positions were 555,041 lots, a decrease of 9517 lots from the previous week [19] - The top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +24,789 to +15,351, and the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures decreased from - 4491 to - 1970 [26] Futures Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 3510 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts were 13,550 lots [32] Spot Price and Basis - In Jiangsu, the spot price of rapeseed oil was 9580 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was +141 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2450 yuan/ton, up slightly from last week, and the basis was - 183 yuan/ton [38][44] Futures Monthly Spread - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was +66 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread was +310 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50] Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil and meal 09 contracts was 3.585, and the average spot price ratio was 3.91 [53] Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - Rapeseed - soybean oil 09 contract spread was 1453 yuan/ton (narrowed this week), rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract spread was 757 yuan/ton (significantly narrowed this week). The soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract spread was 343 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 290 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68] 3. Industrial Chain Rapeseed - Supply: As of July 4, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 200,000 tons, a 33.33% increase. Estimated arrivals in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 130,000, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 10, the import and pressing profit was +481 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed pressing volume was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 8.56%. In May 2025, rapeseed imports were 335,500 tons, a 26.12% year - on - year decrease [74][78][82][86] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 859,000 tons, a 2.88% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed oil imports were 111,200 tons, a 20.31% year - on - year decrease [91] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4,404,000 tons, and as of May 31, catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 146,000 tons, an 8.60% decrease [95][99] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 5000 tons, a 41.86% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed meal imports were 194,700 tons, a 36.06% year - on - year decrease [103][107] - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [111] 4. Options Market - As of July 11, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 18.85%, a 1.63% increase from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [114]