鸡蛋市场周报：现货维持低位运行，拖累盘面再度下探-20250711

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is in a seasonal off - season for demand, with high egg - laying hen存栏量, significant pressure from newly - opened laying hens, and sufficient egg supply. High - temperature and high - humidity weather increases storage costs, leading to cautious purchasing by downstream dealers. Egg prices are at a relatively low level compared to the same period, and the breeding end is in a loss state. However, as prices reach a relatively low level, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing the存栏预期. Near - month futures prices are generally weak, while far - month contracts are more resistant to decline. The recommended strategy is to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7][8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [7] - Market review: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 08 contract was 3442 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 140 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8] - Market outlook: The egg market is in a seasonal off - season, with sufficient supply, high storage costs, and cautious purchasing by dealers. Egg prices are low, and the breeding end is in a loss. But the culling of old hens has accelerated, and far - month contracts are more resistant to decline [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 08 contract of egg futures fluctuated and closed down, with a position of 111,067 lots, a decrease of 69,589 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 28,851, compared with - 31,955 last week, and the net short position increased significantly [14] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 24 [18] - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was reported at 2596 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 78 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 08 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 846 yuan/ton [24] - Futures inter - month spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at - 32 yuan/500 kilograms, generally at a low level compared to the same period [28] - Related product spot prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.73 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 4.42 yuan/kg [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of May 31, 2025, the national laying hen存栏指数 was 110.89, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the national new chick index was 106.78, a month - on - month decrease of 23.00% [41] - Culling situation: As of May 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 108.68, a month - on - month increase of 12.32%; the national culling age of hens was 506 days [46] - Feed raw material prices: As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2840 yuan/ton [50] - Feed price and breeding profit: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.58 yuan/hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.72 yuan/kg [57] - Laying hen chick and culled hen prices: As of July 4, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.9 yuan/bird, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 9.4 yuan/kg [59] - Egg monthly export volume: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 7.87%, and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [65]