油脂油料产业日报-20250711

Group 1: Report Core Views - Palm oil fundamentals are dominated by the contradiction between improved external exports and high domestic inventories. Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 increased by 5.1% - 5.5% MoM, and Indonesia's low - price palm oil continues to attract Asian buyers. However, domestic palm oil inventory reached 251.2 million tons as of July 10, suppressing price increases. Monitor Malaysia's export sustainability and domestic inventory reduction [3]. - Soybean oil fundamentals show a growing divergence between international and domestic markets. The US House passed the Clean Energy Spending Act, which may increase soybean oil demand by about 2 million tons if implemented. But in China, high supply from large soybean arrivals and high - level crushing, along with low consumption in summer, limit price increases. Key factors are US policy implementation and North American weather [4]. - Rapeseed oil maintains a pattern of high inventory and low consumption, with limited policy support. Domestic East - China rapeseed oil inventory is above 65 million tons, and consumption is weak. Policy support from import tariffs has limited impact. Monitor inventory reduction and North American rapeseed - growing area weather [5]. - For imported soybeans, third - quarter supply is abundant, with 11.5 million tons arriving in July, 11 million tons in August, and 9.5 million tons in September. In the fourth quarter, the supply gap depends on Sino - US relations. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure suppresses the spot market, and rapeseed meal follows soybean meal with a weak outlook [16]. Group 2: Oil Futures Price Information Palm Oil - Palm oil 01: 8648 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; Palm oil 05: 8438 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; Palm oil 09: 8682 yuan/ton, up 0.51%; BMD palm oil主力: 4137 ringgit/ton, down 0.22% [8]. Soybean Oil - Soybean oil 01: 7966 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; Soybean oil 05: 7626 yuan/ton, unchanged; Soybean oil 09: 7986 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; CBOT soybean oil主力: 53.49 cents/pound, up 0.41% [12]. Oil Spreads - P 1 - 5: 196 yuan/ton, down 20; Y - P 01: - 694 yuan/ton, up 36; etc. [6]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price Information Soybean Meal - Soybean meal 01: 3015, up 22 (0.74%); Soybean meal 05: 2704, unchanged; Soybean meal 09: 2976, up 22 (0.74%) [17]. Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal 01: 2323, up 7 (0.3%); Rapeseed meal 05: 2311, up 2 (0.09%); Rapeseed meal 09: 2633, up 22 (0.84%) [17]. Spreads and Basis - M01 - 05: 311, up 22; RM01 - 05: 12, up 5; etc. [19].