瑞银：全球策略_应对夏季关税期限_五大交易及客户持仓情况

Investment Rating - The report suggests a neutral view on Energy and recommends a Long EU IG vs. Itrax Main strategy to benefit from potential summer volatility [1][6]. Core Insights - Investors perceive tariffs as the primary risk, with expectations of a negotiated trade deal following potential tariff implementations [2][4]. - Credit spreads have tightened significantly, indicating market complacency regarding tariff outcomes [2][3]. - The report highlights a divergence in investor positioning, with some maintaining cash reserves to capitalize on potential market dislocations [3][4]. Summary by Sections Investor Positioning - Global investor positioning has split into two camps: those with a long risk stance and those underweight in credit risk, now chasing benchmarks [3]. - Cash balances for EU funds were historically high at the start of June, allowing for deployment in primary deals [3][4]. Economic Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual economic slowdown in the US, with tariffs expected to impact growth, though the timing remains uncertain [4][6]. - A low-volume, low-volatility summer is anticipated if tariff deadlines do not lead to significant market disruptions [4]. Credit Market Dynamics - The report models a scenario favoring high yield (HY) over investment grade (IG) in Q3 2025, particularly in tariffs-sensitive sectors [6]. - The analysis indicates limited correlation between oil prices and credit spreads, suggesting macro rather than micro impacts on credit [7][8]. Trade Strategies - The report advocates for receiving July/September ECB contracts as a hedge for fixed income portfolios, offering better asymmetry for credit portfolios [1][2]. - A tactical opportunity is identified in a Long EU IG Cash vs. Itrax Main position, driven by macro sensitivity, seasonality, momentum, and risk-reward positioning [6].