汇丰：中国宏观追踪_供给侧改革 2.0

Investment Rating - The report indicates growing expectations for a second round of supply-side reform in China, driven by government calls to address cutthroat competition and industrial overcapacity risks [2][8]. Core Insights - The current economic environment suggests that the challenges of excess capacity are broader than those faced during the initial supply-side reforms in 2015, affecting both upstream and downstream sectors [3][4]. - The report highlights that leading industries are already taking steps to mitigate "involutionary competition," with significant production cuts announced in the photovoltaic glass sector [5]. Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have emphasized the need to combat fierce price wars and overcapacity risks [2]. - The previous supply-side reforms initiated in 2015 focused on five major tasks, which successfully led to a recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3]. Economic Conditions - China is experiencing its longest streak of contraction in the GDP deflator, with pressures now affecting a wider range of industries, including equipment manufacturing and consumer goods [4]. - The report notes that the property sector's weakness and overinvestment in new industries contribute to the current economic challenges [4]. Industry Responses - Domestic photovoltaic glass companies have collectively announced a 30% reduction in production to address overcapacity [5]. - Other industries, such as cement and steel, are also planning structural adjustments to optimize their operations [5]. Government Policies - The central government is expected to introduce measures to improve the price environment, including higher industry standards and demand-side measures to stabilize the labor and property markets [9]. - Childcare subsidies and work relief programs are being introduced to support employment and boost consumption [14][15].