2025-07-14 00:36Investment Rating - JCET: Buy, Target Price RMB 46.80, implying 39% upside from current share price [4][6][36] - Tongfu: Hold, Target Price RMB 27.30, implying 8% upside from current share price [5][6][58] Core Insights - The revenue growth of China's OSAT companies is expected to slow in 2Q25 due to order shifts to Taiwanese peers and seasonal factors, but is anticipated to accelerate in 3Q25 driven by recovering consumer electronics demand and government subsidies [3][9] - JCET's revenue growth is projected to be 19% year-on-year in 2Q25, slowing from 36% in 1Q25, but expected to rebound to 24% in 3Q25 [4][28] - Tongfu's non-AMD business is expected to grow faster than its AMD business, with a projected 16% increase in 2025 compared to 9% for the AMD segment [5][51] Summary by Sections JCET - JCET's Apple business is gaining attention with potential upside for SiP modules due to design changes for foldable phones [4] - The company plans a historic high capex of RMB 8.5 billion in 2025 to support growth in advanced packaging and automotive sectors [16][36] - Revenue estimates for JCET have been adjusted, with total revenue expected to be RMB 41.285 billion in 2025, reflecting a 2% decrease from previous estimates [32][33] Tongfu - Tongfu's revenue guidance for 2025 is an 11% increase, with adjustments reflecting a 6% decrease in total revenue estimates [5][54] - The acquisition of a 26% stake in King Long Suzhou is expected to contribute RMB 150-200 million in investment gains from 2025 to 2027 [5][49] - Revenue from Tongfu's non-AMD segment is projected to grow at 16% in 2025, benefiting from foreign customers adopting a "China-for-China" strategy [5][51] Financial Metrics - JCET's net profit CAGR for 2025-27 is estimated at 33%, down from 41% previously, with a target price reduction from RMB 50.00 to RMB 46.80 [4][37] - Tongfu's net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered by 16% and 13% respectively, reflecting challenges in the AMD segment [56][58] - JCET's current valuation is attractive compared to its peers, trading at a 21.5x 2026e PE multiple, below the sector average [36][37]